The hottest economic slowdown and the arrival of i

2022-07-24
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The economic slowdown and interest rate cut are approaching. The commodities have entered the adjustment period. The European and American commodity markets showed a weak and volatile pattern overnight. German factory orders increased, and the optimism brought by the rise of European and American stock markets did not bring corresponding support to the commodities. After the previous rise, the dynamic force of commodity continued to rise. When the load could not rise any more, the force was weakening. Recent commodities may show a pattern of shock consolidation. We believe that the world may experience a new round of interest rate cuts. After the European Central Bank announced that it would cut the interest rate to 10-90% of the full range, the Bank of Australia also cut the benchmark interest rate to a new low yesterday, which also increased the expectation of the Bank of England to cut the interest rate tomorrow. The loose global liquidity situation will form a certain support for commodities. However, it is still difficult for commodities to rise without improving the pattern of commodity supply and demand. In addition, the economic situation in the euro zone is also not optimistic. German factory orders have increased, but French industrial output has fallen, the internal imbalance will intensify, and European fiscal tightening will not be relaxed. It will still take time for the eurozone economy to improve substantially. Domestic economic regulation is also being strengthened. The national development and Reform Commission has tightened the review of local bonds, which has slowed down the possibility for local governments to invest by increasing the specific financing scheme of applying computer measurement and control technology to traditional presses. With the increasing pressure on the preparation method of waste cross-linked PE cable material recycling modification material in the first tier cities, the government is also strengthening control. In addition, the regulation of shadow banking and foreign exchange risk has been increased, which will have an impact on the domestic economy. Risk control has become the main task of current economic regulation, while the pattern of weak growth will continue, and it may be difficult for commodities to perform well

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