It is predicted that China's economy will continue to rebound in 2013, but it is difficult to return to the double-digit growth rate before 2008, and copper consumption has fallen from its peak. While the global economy is at the bottom of the three major cycles, it is difficult for overseas economies to make a big improvement in copper consumption. In 2013, copper oversupply limited the rebound of copper prices driven by economic recovery
from the perspective of the three cycles, the global economy is at the end of recession and the early stage of depression, the policy has also entered the era after loose money, and the inventory cycle has also entered the de inventory stage in the circulation field. However, China's economy is relatively special. The short cycle has stabilized, and the long cycle is in the downward channel due to the dissipation of demographic dividends and economic restructuring. As a result, the recovery of global copper consumption in 2013 was limited and the corresponding market demand was generated; Article 6. It is expected that the copper price will rise moderately and the center of gravity will move upward next year, but the high point is limited. It is expected that the high point will fluctuate in the range of 5% above and below RMB 60000
the global economy is still hovering at the bottom.
for commodities, the economic cycle determines the long-term trend of commodities, and the economic cycle, monetary cycle and inventory cycle together become a large economic cycle. At present, the global economy is still at a low ebb in these three major cycles
from a subregional perspective, the optimistic side is that the tail risk of the European debt crisis has decreased, the banking industry has been restructured, the economic structure reform and monetary and fiscal integration have been promoted, the deleveraging of the US private sector has come to an end, the resident debt ratio has decreased, and the real estate has stabilized and recovered. The side to be vigilant: in 2013, as the European economy still needs to be deleveraged and the fiscal tightening is too strong, the transmission channel of the credit market has not been unblocked for a long time, and the unemployment rate is high, the industry is hollowed out and the economic self repair momentum is insufficient; The US economy was dragged down by public sector deleveraging (fiscal tightening), debt ceiling and private consumption slowdown. The recovery in 2013 was still mild
2013 is a key year for China's economic transformation. New urbanization will become the main driving force for steady economic growth. However, according to the development history of countries around the world, it is inevitable that economic growth will change from high-speed growth to sub high-speed growth after the demographic dividend disappears. As a result, China's demand for energy and industrial raw materials is gradually slowing down
in the monetary cycle, we see that almost all economies in the world are competing to relax their currencies. Even economies such as the United States, the interest rate has been reduced, and the easing policy has entered the final stage, and will eventually exit. Coupled with the Marginal Diminishing law of monetary policy effect, the financial attribute of copper is weakening. Specifically, it is expected that the developed countries in Europe and the United States are a policy combination of "tight finance and wide currency, ranking 13th according to the element abundance in the crust". However, due to the tightening of financial supervision, European and American banks have been facing the pressure of deleveraging for a long time, and the efficiency of monetary policy is decreasing, weakening the support of "wide currency" to growth. China implements the policy combination of "fiscal liberalization and monetary stability", but it also has its own problems. Its shortcoming is the squeeze of government departments on the private sector
inventory cycle: for China, the period from 2005 to 2008 is a replenishment cycle, the period from 2008 to the first half of 2009 is a de stocking cycle, the period from the second half of 2009 to 2010 is a replenishment cycle, the period from 2011 to 2012 is a de stocking cycle again, and the first half of 2013 is at least a de stocking phase. Moreover, the characteristics of domestic destocking are as follows: the upstream mines or primary raw materials have been destocked and entered the stage of inventory reconstruction, while the midstream flow relief inventory is still high, Finished product warehouse of downstream end industry "Pure water bottles can be recycled and stored but have not been de inventoried, so they can not take over inventory transfer from the midstream circulation link.
copper mines enter the expansion cycle.
according to the data of the international copper research group, since 2013, the year-on-year growth rate of global copper concentrate production capacity has risen to 5%. By 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of global copper concentrate production capacity has soared to 11.5%, and copper supply will be extremely abundant.
China's copper industry has expanded, Supply is no longer tight. China's copper mine investment fell slightly, but the copper mine output maintained a rapid growth. According to the data, the fixed asset investment in nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry in June increased by 20.63% over the same period last year, reaching 136.965 billion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate was almost the same as that of copper last year. It is estimated that China's copper mine output in 2012 will approach 1.7 million tons, an increase of 30.9% over the same period last year
the external dependence of copper deposits is still high, and overseas prospecting efforts have been intensified. Although overseas copper resources are abundant, domestic copper resources are relatively scarce and highly dependent on foreign countries. According to the data, China's Copper Mine import reached 715700 tons in October 2012, and it is estimated that the import in November will further rise to 750000 tons, so the proportion of domestic copper mines in the supply of the whole copper mine will drop to 18.3%, and the overall self-sufficiency rate is still low
the abundant supply of raw materials leads to the increase of processing fee. For domestic smelting enterprises, there was no shortage of raw materials for copper mines in 2013, and their production capacity also continued to expand. The increase of processing fee, on the one hand, implies abundant supply of copper mine, on the other hand, reduces the cost of smelting enterprises. In 2012, the long-term single processing fee of copper concentrate was basically maintained at $60/T to $63.5/T, up 12.4% from $56.5/T in 2011. It is estimated that the copper concentrate processing fee in 2013 is expected to increase by 20% compared with this year, reaching $70/ton. It is expected that in 2013, the domestic copper smelting production peak will continue, and the production capacity may exceed that in 2012
in terms of refined copper output, China's refined copper output has continuously reached a new high. According to the data, in November 2012, the output of refined copper reached a historical high of 531000 tons, an increase of 11.6% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the output in December will reach 550000 tons, thus the annual refined copper output in 2012 will reach 5.98 million tons
China's demand growth has entered a turning point
in 2012, China's economic growth has dropped significantly, from industrial manufacturing to real estate has entered a cycle of low-speed growth, and the growth rate of various major copper industries has generally slowed down or even declined in different ranges, resulting in a further reduction in the growth rate of domestic copper demand. In 2013, although the economy will continue the stabilization and recovery momentum in the fourth quarter of 2012, the growth rate is difficult to return to the double-digit growth period in. In addition, the central government emphasizes the quality of economic growth, suggesting that the original resource consuming industries are facing constraints. Only infrastructure investment and investment in the power industry are acceptable for copper consumption, while other industries such as household appliances, automobiles and electronics have tended to be saturated
the performance of the end consumer industry was weak in 2012 and is expected to rise slightly in 2013. China's copper terminal consumption industries are mainly the power industry, household appliances industry, transportation industry, mechanical equipment and other industries, especially the power cables, power supply equipment, switches and other power equipment in the power industry consume more than 40% of the copper. It is estimated that the total installed capacity of the power industry in 2013 will increase by about 7.0% year-on-year, which is equivalent to that in 2012. The possibility of electricity to reduce metal fatigue is that the consumption of copper by equipment will be the same as that in 2012. It is expected that the production and sales of household electrical appliances will remain flat in 2013, and the withdrawal of household electrical appliances from the countryside in January 2013 will have a new impact on the household electrical appliance industry. On the whole, the industry was still in the adjustment and digestion stage in the first half of 2013
the copper used in the transportation industry is mainly concentrated in vehicles and other means of transportation. In 2012, the production and sales of the automobile industry showed a slow recovery trend, with the former low and the latter high. However, due to overcapacity, de stocking and Sino Japanese relations, the production and sales of Japanese cars declined, and the congestion in cities around the world, as well as the automobile going to the countryside, the consumption capacity was overdrawn. In 2013, the recovery of automobile production and sales was limited
in a word, the economy was at the bottom of the short cycle in 2012. In 2013, the economy will continue to rebound, but it is difficult to return to the double-digit growth rate before 2008. Copper consumption has fallen from the peak. While the global economy is at the bottom of the three major cycles, it is difficult for overseas economies to make a big improvement in copper consumption. Most importantly, the global copper mine entered the expansion cycle in 2013 and reached its peak in 2015. The oversupply of copper limited the rebound of copper price driven by economic recovery