The hottest economic structure is deeply adjusted.

2022-07-31
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The direction of glass futures in the deep adjustment of economic structure is unclear

important news

the United States continues to build momentum for exiting QE policy; Sales of existing homes in the United States slowed down; Japan worries about the sustainability of its domestic economy and discusses countermeasures

Bloomberg survey: it is expected that the Federal Reserve will shrink QE economists from 44% to 50% in September

the sales of existing homes in the United States unexpectedly dropped by 1.2% month on month in June, the largest drop in the year

FHFA house prices in the United States rose 0.7% month on month in May, and the market is expected to rise 0.8%. The increase rate in April was revised from 0.7% to 0.5%

the Japanese government raised its economic growth expectations, saying deflation had eased; The Japanese finance minister insisted on raising the sales tax rate next year, while Abe's economic adviser insisted that the growth rate of GDP by 4% was the premise

glass index analysis

on the 23rd, "China glass composite index" rose 0.4 points compared with the previous day, "China Glass tensile strength represents its fracture resistance glass price index" Rose 0.22 points, "China glass market confidence index" fell 1.12 points. The market confidence index continued to rise after falling by a large margin, and the other two indexes fluctuated at a high level. The traditional peak demand season is coming, and the confidence index is expected to rebound

glass spot situation

the market situation in East China is good, the shipment is good, and the inventory continues to decline; The sales situation in Shahe region of North China has improved, the shipment is OK, and the inventory is normal; The inventory in Central China is normal and the sales situation is general; The performance of South China is average. Recently, the manufacturers' sentiment of price support and price increase is still good, which is mainly based on the decline of inventory and the coming peak season of glass demand, but the supporting effect of rigid demand is still not obvious, and there is no strong macro policy stimulus. Therefore, we should be cautious about the positive effect of the continuous rise of spot prices

futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, in which a is the size composed of mold parts

23, glass futures still fluctuated in a large range, with average lines intertwined, and the short-term direction is unknown. In September, the contract rose by 6 yuan/ton, or 0.44%, to close at 1362 yuan/ton. The trading volume was very small, and 3166 positions were reduced. In January, the contract rose by 0 yuan/ton, or 0.0% to close at 1375 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 40% compared with the previous day, and 27562 positions were reduced. In May, the contract ended flat by 0.0% to close at 1416 yuan/ton. The trading volume was significantly reduced compared with the previous day, and 256 positions were reduced. After the successful position transfer of the contract, the market is still not optimistic about the settlement price of the contract delivery in September, and the arbitrage opportunity of short month and short month reappears. Recently, focus on arbitrage opportunities and the reference range of main contracts

summary

it has become a fact that domestic economic growth has slowed down. The pain of economic transformation will restrict economic development for a period of time. The construction and building materials market has bid farewell to the booming period. We should rationally view the seasonal changes of the glass industry and not talk about the investment growth stimulating the rapid amplification of glass demand. On the 23rd, the domestic glass market was mainly stable, and the situation in various regions was good. However, the demand market is still rigid, and there is no strong news to stimulate the long-term need to achieve real-time monitoring of tire parameters; Track the historical data of the whole life cycle of tires through specific technologies; Combined with TPMS system for amplification. On the whole, the domestic macro-economy has been continuously and deeply adjusted, and the glass market has been seasonally adjusted. In the short term, it is mainly affected by the change of production capacity and demand, and there is no obvious news to stimulate. Considering that the peak demand season is coming, the glass price is expected to rise steadily and slowly for a long time. Glass futures are mainly subject to wide range contraction shocks. From a technical point of view, the lower support is effective. The price difference between near and far contracts narrowed, and arbitrage opportunities gradually emerged. On the 24th, the company entered the site at the option of "empty September and far month arbitrage"; Intra day investment falls mostly short, reference range

investment suggestions today

intra day investment falls back and is mainly long; Rolling hedging of production enterprises with cost advantages; Large funds focus on the arbitrage between September and September

Author: ZHAOFEI (Xi'an Business Department of Wanda futures) the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

Zhonghua glass () Department

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