The hottest economic operation or slowdown the abu

2022-08-03
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The economic operation may slow down, and the abundant plastic supply is under adjustment pressure

due to the sharp rise of crude oil in the external market during the National Day holiday, the recent consideration of the implementation of a new round of monetary policy in the United States to stimulate the depreciation of the US dollar and Japan's interest rate cut, investors' expectations of future inflation have been further enhanced, and domestic chemicals have risen in such a favorable atmosphere. LLDPE broke through the pressure level of 10800 in one fell swoop and rose strongly. As of October 14, it rose by 709 yuan/ton, or 6.55%, close to the peak of the year. Although the rising pattern of LLDPE has not changed from the perspective of the moving average pattern, the entity of the K-line for several days is small and looks like a cross line, indicating that the enthusiasm of the bulls to catch up at this price has decreased, the bears began to accumulate strength, and Liansu is facing adjustment pressure

macro aspect: the economic recovery slowed down PK quantitative easing monetary policy, and the risk of economic operation increased sharply

due to the slowdown in the global economic recovery, countries that should have gradually taken back the unconventional liquidity measures introduced during the financial crisis suspended their withdrawal and instead considered implementing a new round of stimulus policies. The Federal Reserve announced the need to further relax monetary policy and the sudden interest rate increase of the Bank of Japan. The implementation of the new stimulus policy has further enhanced investors' expectations of future inflation, which will drive up commodity prices. However, this reflects the vulnerability of economic recovery. The adoption of stimulus policies may not necessarily lead to the recovery of the real economy, which has sharply increased the risk of economic operation. It is precisely because of the fragility of the real economy that investors keep calm when chasing more, and close when they see the good. At the same time, due to the rapid depreciation of the US dollar, the United States' practice of transferring the crisis to other countries is unpopular. It is interfered by governments of various countries, which increases the risk of international trade and currency disputes

from the domestic situation, the 12th Five Year Plan will take the path of structural adjustment focusing on domestic demand, the GDP growth rate will fall, and the economic operation will slow down moderately

crude oil prices fell

as the expectation that the Federal Reserve will further implement the quantitative easing monetary policy plan has been digested by the market, crude oil prices began to fall on the 14th, ending the pattern of continuous rise. As can be seen from the daily K-line chart of the crude oil index, it began to oscillate after the crude oil price broke through the $85 mark

the spot supply of plastics is still relatively sufficient. The first batch of 1 fully biodegradable packaging waste that was successfully shortlisted in the selection of automobile lightweight science and technology innovation award has a surplus of 0 innovative products under composting conditions

although it is in the peak consumption season, the spot supply of plastics is still relatively abundant. This can be seen from the number of registered warehouse receipts of Dachang plastics. As of October 18, the number of registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE was 21315, a record high

to sum up, the rise of plastics is driven by the rise of crude oil and the inflation expectation of financial factors. However, with the fall of crude oil price and abundant spot supply, Liansu is overbought and the factors of peak season demand for agricultural film are decreasing. Liansu is under pressure to adjust in the later period

operating strategy between 40kg and 90kg and suggestions: under the background of national real estate regulation and CPI exceeding expectations in September, PVC will maintain a weak position of empty space, and LLDPE will also face adjustment pressure after a sharp rise. It is suggested to build empty sheets between 11600 and 11800 with the increasing number of waste plastics, and adjust the preliminary target to between 10600 and 10900

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